Eco‐efficiency as a strategy for optimizing the sustainability of pest management

Agricultural industrialization and the subsequent reliance on pesticides has resulted in numerous unintended consequences, such as impacts upon the environment and by extension human health. Eco‐efficiency is a strategy for sustainably increasing production, while simultaneously decreasing these externalities on ecological systems. Eco‐efficiency is defined as the ratio of production to environmental impacts. It has been widely adopted to improve chemical production, but we investigate the challenges of applying eco‐efficiency to pesticide use. Eco‐efficiency strategies include technological innovation, investment in research and development, improvement of business processes, and accounting for market forces. These components are often part of integrated pest management (IPM) systems that include alternatives to pesticides, but its implementation is often thwarted by commercial realities and technical challenges. We propose the creation and adoption of an eco‐efficiency index for pesticide use so that the broad benefits of eco‐efficient strategies such as IPM can be more readily quantified. We propose an index based upon the ratio of crop yield to a risk quotient (RQ) calculated from pesticide toxicity. Eco‐efficiency is an operational basis for optimizing pest management for sustainability. It naturally favors adoption of IPM and should be considered by regulators, researchers, and practitioners involved in pest management. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry     

Realizing the potential of trait‐based approaches to advance fisheries science

Analysing how fish populations and their ecological communities respond to perturbations such as fishing and environmental variation is crucial to fisheries science. Researchers often predict fish population dynamics using species‐level life‐history parameters that are treated as fixed over time, while ignoring the impact of intraspecific variation on ecosystem dynamics. However, there is increasing recognition of the need to include processes operating at ecosystem levels (changes in drivers of productivity) while also accounting for variation over space, time and among individuals. To address similar challenges, community ecologists studying plants, insects and other taxa increasingly measure phenotypic characteristics of individual animals that affect fitness or ecological function (termed “functional traits”). Here, we review the history of trait‐based methods in fish and other taxa, and argue that fisheries science could see benefits by integrating trait‐based approaches within existing fisheries analyses. We argue that measuring and modelling functional traits can improve estimates of population and community dynamics, and rapidly detect responses to fishing and environmental drivers. We support this claim using three concrete examples: how trait‐based approaches could account for time‐varying parameters in population models; improve fisheries management and harvest control rules; and inform size‐based models of marine communities. We then present a step‐by‐step primer for how trait‐based methods could be adapted to complement existing models and analyses in fisheries science. Finally, we call for the creation and expansion of publicly available trait databases to facilitate adapting trait‐based methods in fisheries science, to complement existing public databases of life‐history parameters for marine organisms.     

Worlding aspirations and resilient futures: Framings of risk and contemporary city‐making in Metro Cebu,the Philippines

In the Philippines, calls for creating ‘global’, ‘sustainable’ and ‘resilient’ cities are placing urban poor communities in increasingly precarious positions. These communities have long been the targets of urban development and ‘modernisation’ efforts; more recently the erasure of informal settlements from Philippine cities is being bolstered at the behest of climate change adaptation and disaster risk management (DRM) agendas. In Metro Cebu, flood management has been at the heart of DRM and broader urban development discussions, and is serving as justification for the demolition and displacement of informal settler communities in areas classed as ‘danger zones’. Using Kusno's (2010) interpretation of the ‘exemplary centre’ as a point of departure, this paper interrogates the relationship between DRM, worlding aspirations (Roy and Ong, 2011) and market‐oriented urbanisation in Cebu, and considers the socio‐spatial implications of these intersecting processes for urban poor communities. Through analysing the contradictions inherent in framings of certain bodies and spaces as being ‘of risk’ or ‘at risk’ over others, I argue that the epistemologies of modernity, disaster risk and resilience endorsed and propagated by the state are facilitating processes of displacement and dispossession that serve elite commercial interests under the auspices of disaster resilience and pro‐poor development.     

近60年河北省冬小麦干旱风险时空规律

干旱是造成作物减产的主要自然灾害,开展作物干旱成因机制和时空特征研究,对于稳定区域粮食生产有重要意义。本研究基于河北省内18个国家标准气象站点1958—2016年的长时间序列观测资料,采用水分亏缺指数(CWDI)作为干旱评价指标,分析了近60年来河北省冬小麦的干旱风险时空格局;通过CWDI对不同气象因子的敏感性分析,进一步探究了冬小麦干旱的成因机制。研究表明,冬小麦生育期需水量和干旱风险呈先增后减再增加的特征,在拔节–抽穗阶段的干旱风险最高,其次是抽穗-成熟阶段。冬小麦全生育期间干旱等级以重旱和特旱为主,特别在其产量形成的关键生长中后期,河北省东南部黑龙港地区面临较高的旱灾风险。冬小麦干旱受降水、气温、湿度等多种因素的影响,其中影响最大的是降水;气温是影响冬小麦生育后期干旱程度的关键因子,伴随近几十年气候变化冬小麦生长期内温度明显升高,将增加冬小麦生长期的耗水量和灌溉需求。本研究揭示了气候变化影响下河北省冬小麦干旱风险的时空演变规律,识别出了干旱灾害的高风险区和关键生育期阶段,可为优化冬小麦灌溉管理和农田防灾减灾提供参考依据。     

面向一年两熟设施葡萄的能耗评估系统研究

一年两熟设施葡萄栽培系统的能耗研究具有很强的典型性和现实意义，但传统的能耗分析具有人工计算繁琐、易出错、工作效率低等缺陷。为了解决以上问题，本研究通过分析一年两熟设施葡萄的生产流程和系统特点，建立了其能源投入产出指标，构建了DEA-BCC模型和Malmquist指数法相结合的能源效率评估模型。模型首先基于投入主导型的DEA-BCC模型测算出一年两熟设施葡萄园的技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率这3个关键能源效率参数；然后，通过引入Malmquist函数，将生产效率变动分解为技术效率变动指数、技术进步指数和规模效率变动指数，探索能源效率增长的动力，以此对设施葡萄能源效率进行全面评估。最后基于JavaEE平台下的MVC模式的B/S结构,结合Matlab Builder JA功能开发了面向一年两熟设施葡萄的能源消耗评估系统。应用测试表明，系统各功能正常运行，显著提高了能耗研究的计算效率和准确性，为一年两熟栽培模式能耗问题研究提供了可靠的数据处理支撑。     

基于地统计学的土壤重金属分布与污染风险评价

在野外调查取样和室内分析获得大量土壤重金属含量数据和空间数据的基础上,利用经典统计学和普通克里格法(OK)对采样区域土壤重金属含量的空间变异性进行了分析,并利用指示克里格法(IK)和多变量指示克里格法(MVIK)绘制了各项重金属元素污染风险和土壤污染综合风险概率图。结果表明:岩溶地貌区土壤重金属As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Pb、Hg、Ni和Zn的含量显著高于非岩溶地貌区,各项重金属元素之间具有显著的相关性,说明它们存在很大的同源性和复合关系;受岩性、成土母质等内在因素的影响,各项重金属元素(除Cu元素外)都具有强烈的空间变异性,重金属元素含量高值主要分布在东南部和北部的岩溶地貌区,低值主要分布在西南部的非岩溶地貌区;采样区域存在As、Cd、Cu、Hg、Ni和Zn等重金属污染风险,其风险概率分别为0.326、0.805、0.185、0.192、0.267和0.270,土壤重金属污染综合风险概率为0.335。     

基于GIS与RS技术的赤水河流域生态风险评价——以仁怀市为例

为揭示赤水河流域土地利用/覆被变化对区域生态风险的影响以及空间分布,以赤水河流域中游城市仁怀市作为研究区,采用GIS与RS技术与生态风险指数(ERI)模型,开展基于土地利用/覆被变化的生态风险评价研究,探讨了土地利用变化背景下仁怀市生态风险变化特征以及演变机理,并提出了政策保障措施。结果表明,(1)2000—2014年,区域内有林地、疏林地、水域、园地、建设用地面积增加,而耕地、灌木林地、草地面积减少;(2)仁怀市土地生态风险在空间上呈现较强的区域差异性,基本呈现由西南向东北转移的态势,中部地区生态风险高,建成区以及工业聚集区及其周边高,距离高生态风险区越远,生态风险等级越低;(3)整个研究区主要以中等及较高生态风险等级为主,2000年占整个研究区比例的50%以上,2014年达到65%以上。综上可知,仁怀市生态压力正在逐渐加大;政府在发展过程中应当避免由于高生态风险区域向外延伸,造成区域总体生态风险强度加大和面积增加。应当积极开展区域生态治理与恢复,强化土地利用科学规划。     

天津新型日光温室风灾风险评估及区划

为了评估天津新型日光温室风灾风险,本研究在近10年天津日光温室风灾灾情大量实地调查的基础上,根据自然灾害风险评估理论,构建日光温室风灾风险评估模型,计算温室不同等级风灾风险指数,并从站点、空间、时间3个尺度分析了温室风灾风险指数的变化。风险指数站点结果和空间分布结果均表明,宁河、汉沽、塘沽、武清、西青等地是遭受轻、中度风灾风险较高地区。天津新型日光温室遭受轻度风灾的风险最高(风险指数介于0.62~3.15),明显高于中度(风险指数介于0.0~0.61)及重度风灾,而其遭受重度风灾的风险几乎为0,这与天津较少发生8级以上(最大17.2 m/s以上)大风有关。近10年日光温室中、重度风灾风险指数极小且变化基本持平,而轻度风灾风险指数从2005年的2.70逐渐降低至2007年的2.0,2007—2014年始终保持在2.0附近波动。     

天气衍生品的运作机制与精算定价

天气衍生品是为了规避天气风险给天气敏感行业带来收入的不稳定性而兴起的创新型风险管理工具，其实质是通过衍生合约对天气风险进行分割、重组和交易的证券化产品。不同于传统金融衍生品，天气衍生品的价值取决于温度、湿度或降雨量等天气指数。本文在分析天气衍生品市场发展的基础上，重点探讨了最常见的天气期货和天气期权的运作机制及其精算定价。